Mumford & Sons

Westport CT

From a colleague on OpenAI's math and computer science achievements this month:

"These are genuine results - not all the problems are super high visiblity/significance but still we are now in an era where some mathematicians will be tasked with understanding and confirming Al generated results. We are making discoveries faster than we can understand them fully."

On the value of speed in building

A long term view on bubbles 

1) Understand the game you are playing 

• The inner game - it is played within the mind of the player, and it is played against such obstacles as: lapse in concentration, nervousness, self doubt, self condemnation.
• Don’t try and play the game of perfection, or you will always be unhappy. And don’t compare yourself to others, there will always be others that would make you feel inferiority. Don’t compete on image: you can never look good enough, and good to everybody.
• What does it mean to win the inner game? I think it is the most important question. 

2) Relaxed concentration over thought 

• Visualize what and where you want: where you want the ball to go, see it, and, if you like, shut your eyes and imagine yourself doing it. Then don’t think and try; just ask your body to do whatever is necessary to do it.
• Pay attention to the different details and variables and see what feels like it works and what doesn’t. Really observe what you’re doing. Watch it with care, and it will change quite effortlessly.
• Focus means not letting your mind run away with you. Watch a tennis ball in all its detail without thinking about worries, hopes, or instructions. In short, we worry too much and concentrate too little.
• Stress is a thief that, if we let it, can rob us of the enjoyment of our lives. Letting go of my grip on life released an energy that made it possible for me to run with utter abandon toward life.
• Trust in the intelligence of your body and mind, and let it swing. Don’t try to think through it, or you will over-tighten and become rigid, interfering with the wisdom of the body. Let it happen if it knows, and let it learn if it doesn’t. Remember as precisely as possible the feel of a good shot, action, or moment.

3) Use difficulty to discover your potential

• It is only against the big waves that a surfer is required to use all his skill, courage, and concentration to overcome them. Only then can he realize the true limits of his capacities. The more challenging the obstacle he faces, the greater the opportunity to discover and extend his true potential.
• The potential may have always been within him, but until it is manifested in action, it remains a secret hidden from himself. Obstacles are a necessary ingredient in this process of self-discovery. The surfer is exploring his latent capacities through the process of trying to overcome the wave. The process can be more rewarding than the victory itself.

4) Closing thought

• The most impactful part of the book for me were the occasions the author would describe of a coaching session where someone would come to him after struggling with say a poor backhand or serve. They would have taken multiple other lessons, been given many instructions (foot weight here, start moving the racket at this time, wrist should snap like this, etc.), to little avail.
• The author would then, without giving a single piece of instruction, guide the person on really paying attention to their stroke, and giving them time to realize what motions worked and didn’t. By halfway into the lesson, they would have self-discovered the stroke that worked for them, changing their game more in 30 minutes than 3 years of lessons prior. 
• When they would thank him after the lesson, he would say “for what exactly? I don’t think I told you a single thing..."

1) Quick summmary on his accomplishments:

• Founder in one of the world's key industries (oil refinement)
• Grew it to the largest company in world, while helping build out the surrounding infrastructure 
• Created an organization that could function and flourish without him 
• Philanthropically invested the results with an enormous and lasting impact

2) "The most important decision in poker is what table you sit at"

• Rockefeller started Standard Oil in Cleveland. Why did Cleveland prove to be such an advantage over competitors? Pittsburgh was closer to the Pennsylvania oil fields and New York was closer to the customers, but Cleveland had water. It sat on Lake Erie, with the Erie Canal feeding east and the Great Lakes opening west.
• Water freight was cheap—far cheaper than rail. Rockefeller could float his oil to market for around half of what a railroad charged. And critically, he could use either railroads or water. They built themselves into a position where they could not be pinned down by any one transportation provider.

3) Moved (very very) fast when there was a rare opportunity during a financial crisis 

• In four weeks in 1972, standard oil bought out 22 of Cleveland’s 26 refineries. In one two-day span they bought six. Historians called it the 'Cleveland massacre'. Offered all stock in the new company or cash - most took the cash. 

4) It was not easy 

• “For years on end I never had a solid nights sleep”.
• Around 40, was losing weight and wrote to his mom he was eating a lot of celery because it was “supposed to help with nervous difficulty”.

5) Comprehensive and impactful philanthropy

• To really understand this part of Rockefeller’s legacy, read this incredible piece on Frederick Taylor Gates, the critical person behind much of his philanthropy and one of the world's great "unsung heroes"
• Built the first modern medical/health schools, which in turn have had titanic impact on public health
• Built the campaign that all but eradicated yellow fever from the Americas. Took on hookworm when roughly 2 of 5 Southern children carried it at the time. Money was levered to get state governments moving. Half a million people were treated. Then took the hookworm fight worldwide to 52 countries
• University of Chicago silent founder with $35 million donation; and made major contributions to multiple minority colleges. Helped bring 800 Southern high schools into existence
• Rockefeller foundation still making major and impactful contributions over a century later 

AI in action

One prediction/analogy of frontier models

Why the frontier labs subsidize so heavily

How businesses should charge in the world of AI